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Djokovic and Medvedev: world no.1 scenarios



Novak Djokovic could lose his throne. The Serbian tennis player has been number one in the world since February 3rd, 2020, i.e. for 360 weeks, and since then his position has always been solid. Despite this long spell of dominance, Djokovic’s top position next week could be in jeopardy.

This is because Daniil Medvedev could overtake his friend and rival before the Indian Wells Masters 1000. Ranking in hand, the score difference between Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev is 1240, but there are points to be subtracted from the Australian Open.

The Serbian, in fact, did not participate in the first Grand Slam of the season due to the decision of the Melbourne court not to let the tennis player, unvaccinated and with a medical exemption, enter Australia. Already in the Australian Grand Slam Medvedev could dethrone the king, but the defeat suffered by Rafael Nadal in the final did not allow him to achieve this goal.

Daniil Medvedev

Daniil Medvedev could have conquered the first position of the ATP ranking with the ATP 500 in Rotterdam, where he was enrolled and was the first seed. After the defeat suffered at the Australian Open, however, the Russian preferred to rest and get back in shape for the first Masters 1000 of the season.

The overtaking, therefore, of the current number two in the world could take place next week, between the tournaments in Acapulco and Dubai.


The scenarios for the first position of the ATP ranking
There are several scenarios for which Daniil Medvedev could become number one in the world.

The first of these is for the Russian to win the ATP 500 in Acapulco: in this case, any result Djokovic would make in the Dubai tournament would be useless. The other combinations for which Russian could become world number one are: Medvedev reaches the final in Acapulco and Djokovic does not win the title in Dubai.


Medvedev wins the semifinals in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the final in Dubai. Medvedev reaches the quarter-finals in Acapulco and Djokovic does not win the semifinals in Dubai. Medvedev reaches the round of 16 in Acapulco and Djokovic does not enter the semifinals in Dubai.

Medvedev loses in the first round in Acapulco and Djokovic does not reach the quarter-finals in Dubai If Daniil Medvedev reached the first position of the ATP classification, it would be a historic result, for several reasons.

Medvedev would be the third Russian to get that position in the ranking, after Yevgeny Kafelnikov in 1999 and Marat Safin in 2000-2001. Above all, the Russian would be the first player to conquer that position other than one of the Big Four: the last stranger to this small circle was Andy Roddick, who was number one in 2004.